Research Paper Series

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Year RPS # Title Author/s
2002 2002-030 (DS) MODELING A COMPLEX SUPPLY CHAIN: DO NOT OVERSIMPLIFY IT H. Brian Hwarng & Cynthia S.P. Chong

The benefits of coordinating activities and consolidating distribution points in supply chains are well highlighted and intuitively logical. However, the impact of these decisions on the overall performance of a complex supply chain, may not be as obvious as usually perceived. This study models a relatively complex supply chain and evaluates the impact of simplifying demand and lead time assumptions under various supply chain configurations. Of particular interest is the investigation of the effect of risk pooling and the synchronization of production cycles in a multi-level multi-retailer supply chain under the influence of various parameters such as batch size, delivery frequency, and ordering cycle. This study shows that the intricacy of the complicated interaction effects among various factors in a complex supply chain, can be better understood only with a simulation model.
 
Keywords: Supply chain management, Simulation, Logistics, Inventory

2002 2002-029 (MO) PSYCHOLOGICAL CONTRACTS AND EMPLOYMENT RELATIONSHIPS: INTEGRATING EMPLOYEE AND EMPLOYER PERSPECTIVES Ronald A. Rodgers & Mark E. Bernard

Individual and organizational perspectives relating to psychological contracts and the employment relationship are explored, based on an examination of three issues: 1) the relationship between employees’ perceptions of their own obligations and their perceptions of their employers’ obligations; 2) the impact on employees’ attitudes and performance of the employees’ perceptions of (a) their employers’ obligations, (b) the organizational contributions that are actually provided, and (c) the discrepancy between obligated and provided contributions. 3) the impact of the contributions and demands reported by supervisors on employees’ perceived obligations. To assess these issues, equivalent multiple-item scales were used in the questionnaires administered to 1999 staff nurses in hospitals in Singapore (employees), and in the corresponding questionnaires and performance appraisal reports completed by their supervisors.
 
Employees who perceived their obligations to be high reported more favorable attitudes and received better performance appraisal scores, regardless of whether they perceived their employers’ obligations to be high or low; but employees’ perceptions of their employers’ obligations were found to have an indirect positive impact on the employees’ attitudes and performance. Perceived organizational contributions are also significantly associated with employee attitudes, but are only moderately or weakly associated with appraised performance. When the impact of perceived contributions is taken into account, the discrepancy between expected and perceived contributions has no incremental adverse impact on employee attitudes or performance. Finally, employees’ perceptions of their own performance obligations are strongly influenced by the employees’ expectations of organizational contributions, but they are affected only slightly by the supervisors’ expectations or contributions.
 
Keywords: psychological contracts, employment relationship, bilateral influence

2002 2002-028 (BP) MOTIVATIONS AND PROSPECTS FOR FORUM FOR EAST ASIA-LATIN AMERICA COOPERATION Linda Low

EALAF was renamed FEALAC as the first ministerial meeting concluded with an initial framework document on objectives, principles and modalities in 2001. As there is little by way of progress and evaluation to be made, this paper considers the political economy implications of the design and make up of FEALAC, noting the vision and the reality in the emerging global economic and geopolitical environment. That FEALAC is set up as a project of foreign ministers ant not some trade liberalization, economics and business matters like APEC or a cultural rapprochement as in ASEM may be a start in the first instance on international relation before advancing deeper and further. It is not simple for a group of some 30 developing countries to plunge headlong into trade and economics. With an unsettled global economic environment such as it was in 2001, FEALAC is treading cautiously and not even convening itself as a block developing countries in a multilateral setting. However, that it could and must go beyond to fulfil all aspects of its multidisciplinary terms of reference will be the premise taken in this paper.

2002 2002-027 (BP) SINGAPORE INC FOR COMPETITIVENESS AND GLOBAL ECONOMY: THE PROMISE AND REALITY Linda Low

This paper examines the proposition is Singapore faced with structural challenges from global, regional and technological sources, must realign to have the private sector drive the new economy. However, the political economy process and culture of Singapore Inc is a domestic structural challenge, in and of itself, both a fundamental strength and weakness. At the heart of the proposition are two interrelated hypotheses inserted into any realistic policy recommendation to sustain a competitive globalised economy. The first hypothesis is if private sector’s corporate activism is more suited for the new economy, by implication, Singapore Inc or the developmental state driving industrial policy in the old economy either has to go, be dismantled and privatized or remake itself to be more private, however defined. The remaking of Singapore Inc as in the Economic Review Committee and new Temasek Charter has to synchronise government in business to be part of the domestic corporate sector in a conducive business environment working with market forces. The second hypothesis is the political economy of a government-made city state can withstand the unraveling to loosen Singapore Inc’s economic grip which has finessed the political regime since 1959 to garner financial resources and political legitimacy. This paper aims to evaluate the ensuing dilemma for Singapore Inc, how to be competitive in the new global economy by recharting its direction and focus without losing the political economy value built up thus far, that is, having it both ways. A number of paradoxes and puzzles emerge given Singapore’s sui generis model of growth and wealth accumulation. How the leadership rationalises or redefines the structural parameters of Singapore Inc in the context of changing time and environment is indeed a huge promise which has to be realistic, credible and deliverable. Given path dependency or what has been historically set, especially if it were successful institutions and policies, the tendency and probability of changing that drastically requires tremendous political will, even a regime change in some countries.

2002 2002-026 (BP) SINGAPORE ONE: THE HARD TECHNO-INFRASTRUCTURAL AND SOFT SOCIO-ECONOMIC ISSUES Linda Low

Singapore One as broadband infrastructure is the city-state’s answer to harness information communication technology to move to a knowledge-based economy, attain industrialized, developed country and knowledge society in one fell swoop. The intelligent island is a reality as hard infrastructure to wire networks and applications is well funded and directed by a slew of policies in an interventionistic developmental state as part of economic survival and sustainability. The commitment to soft infrastructure in human resource development, education and training is commensurable with Singapore One. The enigma lies in the regulatory framework over content and softer socio-cultural and political issue for a full-fledged knowledge society. The extent and pace of change of political ethos and culture may not be as synchronized with other achievements of the intelligent state. Rather than adjudged as obstructing liberal democratization conventionally perceived a natural parallel to the economics of materialistic affluence, the paper argues that evolution to freedom in speech and open communication facilitated by information communication technology will come in its own way and time. Neither need a knowledge society be necessarily a clone of Western democracy as Singapore will eventuate through its natural socio-political culture what suits its heritage and vision. This is neither over ambitious nor patronising given the image of a controlled and suppressed polity and society. In the final analysis, how well Singapore One’s hard and soft aspects are consonant and concerted in socio-cultural, political and economic aspects will be set and paced by Singapore’s interdependence and integration in the global market and global community.
 
Keywords: Singapore One, Internet, intelligent island, third-generation high-speed wireless service, knowledge-based economy, knowledge society

2002 2002-025 (DS) WHAT IS THE REAL SOURCE OF ROOT CAUSE: SIMULTANEOUS IDENTIFICATION OF MEAN SHIFT AND CORRELATION CHANGE H. Brian Hwarng

In this paper, we propose a neural-network based identification system for both mean shift and correlation parameter change. The identifier is trained to detect mean shift, to recognize the presence of autocorrelation, and to identify shift and correlation magnitudes. Various magnitudes of process mean shift under the presence of various levels of autocorrelation are considered. Both in-control and out-of-control average run length are computed to measure the performance of the trained identifier. In addition, we also measure the correction classification rate of shift and/or correlation magnitudes. When properly trained, the networks are capable of simultaneously indicating whether the process change is due to mean shift, correlation shift or both. New summary statistics are derived to provide these measures. This approach is unique since all the statistical control charts developed so far can only detect mean (or variance) shift or parameter change when the deviation is beyond a certain specified control limit but incapable of distinguishing whether the shift is due to mean, correlation change, or both when they are concurrently taking place. The result is significant since it providers additional specific information about the process change; therefore it narrows down the scope of the assignable causes and speed up the troubleshooting process.

2002 2002-024 (DS) INDICATING WHEN AUTOCORRELATED TIME SERIES SHIFTED USING NEURAL NETWORKS H. Brian Hwarng

The main purpose of this paper is two-fold: (1) to present a neural-network based methodology for monitoring process shift in the presence of autocorrelation; and (2) to demonstrate the power, the effectiveness, and the adaptability of this approach. The proposed neural network uses the effective and efficient extended delta-bar-delta learning rule and can be trained with the powerful back-propagation algorithm. The comparative study on AR(1) processes shows that the performance of this neural-network based monitoring scheme is superior to that of SCC, X, EWMA, EWMAST, and ARMAST control charts in most instances. Moreover, the network output can also provide information about the shift magnitude. The study of run length distributions suggest that further improvement on designing such neural networks in possible. The adaptability of the neural-network approach is demonstrated through the flexible design of the training data set. To further improve run length properties under various shift magnitudes, alternative control heuristics are proposed.

2002 2002-023 (MKTG) HALO IN SATISFACTION MEASURES – THE ROLE OF PURPOSE OF RATING, NUMBER OF ATTRIBUTES, AND CUSTOMER INVOLVEMENT Jochen Wirtz

Firms usually measure customer satisfaction on an attribute-by-attribute basis in order to identify and improve potential weaknesses, and to fortify their strengths in service delivery. However, research has shown that halo can threaten the interpretability of such data. Also, halo is particularly acute in satisfaction measurement of services with a high degree of ambiguous and credence attributes. This paper examines three halo-reducing methods developed in psychology and organizational behavior in the context of customer satisfaction. The perceived purpose of evaluation (evaluative vs. developmental) and the number of attributes measured (few vs. many) were examined in an experimental design, and the level of product involvement (low vs. high) was examined using a quasi-experimental design.
 
The data showed reduced halo when the respondents were presented with the development rather than evaluative purpose, when more rather than less attributes were measured, and when subjects were highly involved with the service.

2002 2002-022 (BP) ENTREPRENEURSHIP DEVELOPMENT IN IRELAND AND SINGAPORE Linda Low

Ireland and Singapore have many striking similarities despite varying political ethos and culture. Both economies are striving toward a knowledge-based economy (KBE) based on information communication technology (ICT) in a highly globalised context. Both have been ranked as the top globaliser, Ireland in 2001 and Singapore in 2000 by AT Kearney in Foreign Policy Magazine. In terms of sustainability for economic growth and development, both economies recognise the critical role of their local enterprises and indigenous industry in general and entrepreneurship in innovative and creative activities, in particular. Both the Celtic tiger and Singapore as developmental states have favourable government intervention including the all-important aspect in human resource development and entrepreneurship education and training at the university level in pursuit of sustainable growth. Faced with a more competitive and highly volatile global economy, the two may learn lessons from each other and share experiences with other economies in their respective regions on enterpreneurship or enterprise development. This paper will analyse the prospect of such a generic entrepreneurship developmental model.
 
JEL classification: M13 Entrepreneurship
 
Keywords: knowledge-based economy, information communication technology, technology brokers, new wave migration, disapora, enterpreneurship education

2002 2002-021 (BP) SOCIAL SECURITY AND SOCIAL WELFARE PROTECTION IN THE NEW ECONOMY Linda Low

Labour is the Achilles’ heel of globalization and the new economy has also turned traditional employment relationships including social security and protection upside down.  This paper aims to relook the issues arising by first reviewing definitions and concepts of social policy, social security, social protection and social welfare safety net, globalization and new economy, their interrelationships.  This overall impact is applied to the Asian context in terms of issues and policy implications.  In identifying the conceptual and empirical trends, the paper intends to provoke ideas rather than aspire for ready-made policy solutions or resolutions.  Some points could be on the agenda for further research and roundtable discussion for United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia Pacific (ESPAC) and related agencies.  The underlying premises of poverty alleviation and improving the economic and social welfare of workers are intrinsically salient to growth, any worsening would impinge on economic efficiency and productivity.

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