Research Paper Series

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Year RPS # Title Author/s
2015 2015-004 (MKTG) CUMULATIVE ADVANTAGE OF RESEARCH PRODUCTIVITY: HOW LARGE IS IT AND WHO HAS IT? Junhong Chu

The principle of cumulative advantage (CA) or success-breeds-success has been found to apply to the area of research productivity. This paper investigates the magnitude, evolution, determinants, and implications of cumulative advantage in the field of marketing. This study differs from prior literature in that: (1) it is based on a much more comprehensive dataset, covering all standing marketing faculty in the top 150 universities with publications spanning careers ranging from 6 to 34 years, (2) it directly estimates each individual’s cumulative advantage, (3) it accounts for the diminishing returns from cumulative advantage, (4) it computes publishing capacity and simulates the head start effect, and (5) it examines differences across research areas, demographics, and cohorts of graduates. A significant CA effect is found for every researcher, but with diminishing returns. Researchers who see faster productivity growth in their early career years also tend to experience faster productivity decline in their late career years, and the correlation is particularly strong for tiered publications. Researchers have a high capacity for publishing, but their publishing potential is generally far from being fully realized. The cumulative advantage of publishing generates a strong head-start effect for early-career publications. Researchers differ substantially in their ability to do research, and in the rate at which an advantage accumulates and diminishes. These differences are determined largely by an individual researcher’s research area, gender, PhD school rank, PhD training, and country of origin. However, contrary to prior literature, the cumulative advantage of publishing does not lead to growing inequality in productivity over academic age, although there are considerable differences across cohorts of doctoral graduates.

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2015 2015 2015-003 (AC) CEO NARCISSISM AND MANAGEMENT FORECASTING Guang Ma

This study investigates the association between CEO narcissism and management forecasts. We measure CEO narcissism as the usage of first-person singular pronouns in conference calls and presentations, and find that CEO narcissism is negatively associated with the likelihood and frequency of issuing forecasts, negatively associated with forecast precision, and positively associated with forecast optimism and accuracy. Our evidence is consistent with the view that narcissistic CEOs’ self-admiration and sense of superiority drives them to avoid possible unfavorable outcome, specifically missing the forecast, at all costs.

2015 2015-002 (AC) ACCOUNTING STANDARDS AND FINANCIAL INTEGRATION Dan Dhaliwal, Wen He, Yan Li & Raynolde Pereira

Do accounting standards impact financial integration? We evaluate this question by examining the impact of mandatory International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption on financial integration as it relates to firm level equity effects. Specifically, it is argued that financial integration improves firm risk sharing and its stock price efficiency. Empirically, we assess these predictions by examining the extent to which global factors explain local stock returns and the speed with which local stock returns incorporate global factors. We find robust results that IFRS adoption is positively associated with both these dimensions of financial integration. We also find this relation to be more pronounced in countries where there is significant difference between IFRS and domestic accounting standards and stringent legal enforcement in place. In addition, the effect of IFRS adoption on financial integration is stronger when it is accompanied by a substantial increase in foreign investment. To shed light on the causal relation involved, we measure changes in accounting quality and comparability around IFRS adoption. We find the IFRS adoption-financial integration relation is more pronounced when there are significant improvements in both these accounting attributes. Overall, our study provides initial evidence on the role of accounting standards on financial integration.

2015 2015-001 (FN) POLITICAL CAPITAL OR CONSTRAINT: EVIDENCE FROM CEO TURNOVERS IN CHINESE PRIVATE FIRMS Jerry X. Cao, Xiaofei Pan, Meijun Qian & Gary Tian

Previous theoretical and empirical studies suggest that CEOs’ political connections are valuable to firms. We examine whether such connections become constraints if the expected political capital fails to materialize and the firm lacks other type of political power in place. Using a sample of listed firms in China, we show that politically connected CEOs in privately controlled (i.e., not state-owned) firms have longer tenure, lower turnover, and weaker turnover-performance sensitivity than non-politically connected CEOs. Further identification tests show that these turnover patterns are not consistent with alternative explanations for turnover patterns such as superior managerial ability or reduction in managerial myopia. The turnover patterns are less pronounced in firms that have alternative political power, such as connected boards or state ownership. Following the turnover of politically connected CEOs, performance improves only for the state-owned firms. Our results call for new theories that comprehend both values and costs of political connection.

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